Obama vs. Clinton: a pragmatics approach

[drydem]

McCain is the Republican nominee. In selecting an opponent it is important to consider politics not as a 2 party option, but as a sliding scale with a republican right, a democratic left and an independent center.

Now, McCain does not have significant appeal to the Right, as he has frequently acted not in accordance with the religious right or the neoconservative movement but as a "maverick" more in line with the center leaning wing of the republican party. While this gives me greater respect for him as a Senator, his recent efforts to cozy up to the conservative elements leave me uncomfortable with his potential politics and skeptical of his political positions.

Hillary Clinton has some decent appeal to the Left, though many consider her hawkish positions on the Iraq war and her support of a number of Bush policies to bring her leftist cred into question. Hillary however, is a significant opponent to the right, who view her policies as directly hostile to their agenda and have disliked her since her terms as first lady.

Barack Obama has some decent appeal to the Left, though his policies tend to be more centrist than a true leftist candidate such as Gravel or Kucinich or 1996/2000 Nader. Obama has also shown a great deal of cross-party appeal with many independents and Republicans voting for him in open primaries.

These differences emerge in potential splits along the political spectrum based on potential match-ups.


Baseline
In the baseline of political spectrum, there is a certain percentage of the population that will vote Democrat and a certain number that will vote republican, regardless of candidate. These portions do not include the far left or right who may abandon an excessively centrist candidate either for a third party or a non-vote. It also excludes the general center because there is a middle group that could go either way. It is with this baseline that we examine the potential matchups.

   |___D____|        |____R___|
|----------------|----------------|
L                I                R

Obama-McCain

In an Obama McCain contest, the real contest is over the independents. While McCain has significant appeal to independent voters, Obama has also proven such an appeal thus the contest will be centered less on swinging significant numbers of party base and more about swinging significant numbers of independents. However, even in terms of a direct split between independent voters, assuming an equal number on both sides of the center divide, Obama has an advantage in terms of the energy of party faithful. In this scenario, the far right does not see that McCain shares enough values with them and does not manifest in large numbers as in previous elections.

  |________D_____|______R_____|
|----------------|----------------|
L                I                R

or, alternate scenario, McCain pushes to the right and alienates center independents who move to Obama's camp and more than make up the difference on the right.

  |________D_______|______R______|
|----------------|----------------|
L                I                R

Clinton-McCain

A Clinton vs. McCain matchup is less certain in some ways. While Clinton will not lose the Left entirely, she will equally polarize the right, pushing McCain's support to the right on the scale without making McCain having to make a significant push. Additionally, Clinton has less appeal to independents as part of the DNC establishment, thus allowing McCain to grab more of the independent vote across the center. In this scenario, McCain can claim both center and right without having to choose in the way he would against Obama.

  |_____D_______|________R_______|
|----------------|----------------|
L                I                R

This is why from a pragmatic systematic perspective Obama is the logical choice.